The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) November Employment Situation Summary showed the economy added 228,000 jobs—down slightly from the 244,000 jobs added in October (revised down from 261,000). Both the overall unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for persons 55 and older remained unchanged from October at 4.1and 3.1 percent, respectively. The number of unemployed individuals ages 55+ was also unchanged at 1.1 million and the labor force participation rate for those 55 and older increased slightly to 39.9 percent in November from 39.8 percent in October. As in October, jobs were added in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care. The percentage of jobseekers ages 55+ who are long-term unemployed, defined as looking for work for 27 or more weeks, increased from 34.7 percent to 37 percent.
Spotlight on Employment Projections to 2026
In October 2017, the BLS released its latest employment projections for 2016 to 2026. The data cover overall job growth, labor market demographics, and industry projections. The overall employment forecast for the United States is an increase of 11.5 million workers in the decade leading up to 2026. This represents an increase from 156.1 million to 167.6 million workers, or 0.7 percent annual growth. The projected growth rate is faster than the 0.5 growth rate during the previous decade, which was strongly influenced by the effects of the Great Recession.
The demographics of the labor force are projected to grow more diverse and will be influenced by the overall aging of the population.
In 2026 the labor force participation rate is projected to decrease to 61.0 percent, down from 62.8 percent in 2016. The highest level of labor force participation, 67.1 percent, occurred in 2000. The aging population is forecast to lower overall labor force participation as more people exit the labor market. At the same time, however, the aging population will lead to greater numbers of older workers in the workforce.
The BLS predicts that the share of workers 55 and older will grow to 24.8 percent in 2026, an increase from 22.4 percent in 2016 and 16.8 percent in 2006. Slow labor force growth will also reflect, to some degree, a slowdown in the growth of the civilian non-institutional population. The annual rate of 0.9 percent population growth from 2016 to 2026 is slower than both the 1.0 percent growth from 2006 to 2016 and the 1.3 percent growth from 1996 to 2006.
New jobs will largely be in the service sector, accounting for approximately 9 out of 10 new jobs. As the population ages, health care and social assistance industries, as well as the occupations within these industries, are projected to make up a large proportion of the jobs created in the years leading up to 2026. Nearly 4.0 million jobs are projected to be added by 2026 in this sector, representing approximately one-third of all new jobs. By 2026 it will be the largest major sector of the U.S. economy. Many of these jobs will require high skills levels and at least some level of postsecondary education.
For more details, check out the November Employment Data Digest, PPI’s monthly review of job trends for those ages 55 and over.
Jen Schramm is a senior strategic policy advisor at the AARP Public Policy Institute. As part of the Financial Security Team, she identifies policy challenges and opportunities related to workers age 50 and above. Through research and analyses of emerging employment trends, she develops policy options to inform AARP’s strategy on work and jobs, including helping older workers find and retain jobs.
The economy lost 33,000 jobs in September largely reflecting the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Despite the overall job loss, the labor force participation rate for those ages 55 and older decreased only slightly to 40.1 percent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) September Employment Situation report showed the overall labor force participation rate edged up slightly to 63.1 percent. The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent with 6.8 million persons remaining unemployed. Much of the impact of the hurricanes was seen in the food services sector, which lost 105,000 jobs. Meanwhile, jobs were added in health care, transportation, and warehousing. The unemployment rate for those ages 55+ was unchanged from August (3.2 percent), but the percentage of job seekers ages 55+ who are long-term unemployed (i.e., looking for 27 or more weeks) rose from 30.5 percent to 35.3 percent.
Spotlight: Labor Market Experiences of Americans at Age 50
Turning to more long-term trends, the BLS recently released new findings from an ongoing longitudinal study of Americans born between 1957 and 1964, the tail end of the baby boomer generation. The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 is a survey of 9,964 men and women who were ages 14 to 22 in 1979 when the study first began. Participants were most recently interviewed in 2014-2015. The recently released findings track the number of jobs, labor market experience, and earnings growth of this age cohort.
Interestingly, the average annual percentage growth in inflation-adjusted hourly earnings was highest for this cohort during their late teens and early twenties. This means that their earnings increased most rapidly while they were young and just at the beginning of their careers. As a cohort, they never again replicated this rate of earnings growth over the course of their career life span, reflecting some of the larger economic trends over the ensuing decades of their lives. Earnings growth rates tended to be higher for college graduates compared with workers with less education.
Individuals without a high school diploma had lower percentages of weeks in employment compared with individuals with higher levels of education. Men were employed a greater percentage of weeks than women (84 percent of weeks for men versus 71 percent of weeks for women). But the percentage of weeks of employment grew for women from 63 percent in the 18 to 24 age category to 76 percent in the 35 to 44 age group. Overall this group of baby boomers were employed on average 78 percent of the weeks from age 18 to age 50.
This group of baby boomers held an average of 11.9 jobs from the ages of 18 to 50, spanning from five jobs while ages 18 to 24 down to 4.5 jobs from ages 25 to 34, to 2.9 jobs from ages 35 to 44, and to 1.7 jobs from ages 45 to 50. Older workers are generally thought to have longer average job durations but the study found that at least for this youngest cohort of baby boomers, short-duration jobs continued to be common at older ages. Among jobs started during ages 35 to 44, 75 percent ended in fewer than five years.
For more details on this month’s employment numbers, check out the September Employment Data Digest, PPI’s monthly review of job trends for those ages 55 and over.
Jen Schramm is a senior strategic policy adviser at the AARP Public Policy Institute. As part of the Financial Security Team, she identifies policy challenges and opportunities related to workers age 50 and above. Through research and analyses of emerging employment trends, she develops policy options to inform AARP’s strategy on work and jobs, including helping older workers find and retain jobs.